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COPYRIGHT 2002 Crain Communications, Inc.
WASHINGTON--It would be nice to say this policy or that technology will shape the direction of the wireless industry in 2003. But neither industry nor official Washington has that luxury. Geopolitics could come to color the wireless world to a far greater extent than any single piece of legislation, regulatory action, court decision, business transaction or technological innovation next year.
The prospect of war with Iraq early next year has huge implications for the wireless industry, which having hit rock bottom desperately needs stability in the only market that counts anymore--the global one. Oil still trumps spectrum in the big scheme of things. Just the same, there are plenty of folks around here ready to go war in a heartbeat over radio frequencies.
War is a wild card unpredictable in its possible manifestations. For the wireless industry, it is not a pretty picture--one complicated by the lingering overhang of accounting scandals, corporate fraud, heavy debt, lackluster earnings, waning consumer demand and bankruptcies. Such uncertainty is bound to give rise to risk-averse behavior in a high-tech sector that normally thrives on living dangerously.
This scenario cannot warm the hearts of wireless executives as the curtain rises on the New Year. The only real silver lining for industry is the bucket of federal money--billions upon billions--for defense and homeland security. Cashing in is another matter, though. Industry and government officials will pound doors in 2003 for the $73 million denied President Bush in 2002 for wireless priority access service.
Perhaps survival will be victory enough for wireless firms in 2003. Perhaps not. For sure, carriers and vendors will be forced to make the best of...
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