The Kyoto protocol: the origins of our dilemma.(climate change in Canada, world)(Illustration)

Publication: Journal of Business Administration and Policy Analysis

Publication Date: 01-JAN-02

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COPYRIGHT 2002 Journal of Business Administration

INTRODUCTION

There is no more controversial issue today than Kyoto and climate change, and no issue more needing informed balanced analysis. Its significance for our future cannot be exaggerated. In 2002 parts of Alberta suffered severe drought, and the oil and gas sector was deeply troubled by projected new capital and operating costs. Will the environmental benefits justify the economic costs to our province and to our country?

I would like to provide an overview of events and forces which have led to Kyoto. I have been a participant in many of the events described and I am mindful of the bias which may be involved. I will attempt to develop three interconnected themes in the comments to follow: (1) the history and the nature of climate change, (2) the issues raised for the modern world, and (3) the ways in which Canada and the International community have sought to manage it.

These issues create enormous challenges for those in government or industry who have to manage them. Their complexity and interconnectedness defy simple solutions and have stretched our policy making processes. Kyoto poses several unique challenges:

* The Science: Without the latest computers it would be impossible to attempt the complex climate modeling so central to estimating future climate change.

* For Business: Carbon is so central to fossil fuel combustion that the required new technology creates enormous financing challenges for business. We are talking about the core of our fossil fuel economy.

* For the Public: Without significant life style changes, other actions may be futile gestures.

* For Governments: Climate change is driving the revolution in government environmental policy from regulation to market mechanisms.

The complexity of the above is compounded by the time factor. Our focus is the future, not the present. What will be conditions in a century? Who knows for sure? As Yogi Berra of the New York Yankees once said of a forthcoming World Series "Predictions are difficult, especially if they involve the future."

No wonder we have divisions and controversy: new, unique challenges for business, government, and society, and new, unique challenges for economics, environment, and technology. This is quite simply one of the toughest issues of the 21st century and it will take time to reach a public consensus, design a plan, and implement it in a fair and equitable fashion.

WHAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE?

Opinion polls demonstrate that few Canadians have a clear idea about its nature. One Calgarian recently questioned about climate change stated how he understood it. "I can play golf in January without going to Arizona." We must deal with it in a more precise fashion. (See Figure 1) Rays from the sun penetrate our atmosphere; some warm the earth's surface and others are reflected back into space. However some of the reflected rays do not escape; they are trapped by greenhouse gases (GHG) and add to the solar warming of the earth. These GHG include carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]), methane (C[H.sub.4]), nitrous oxides ([N.sub.2]O), water vapour, and some trace gases. This trapping process is called the greenhouse effect.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Without this effect, the globe would be very much colder, and life as we know it would not have evolved on this planet. Individual GHGs have different properties which influence their role in influencing climate change. Methane (C[H.sub.4]) has 21 times the GHG intensity of carbon dioxide (C[O.sub.2]), but remains in the atmosphere for about one third of the time. We use the term C[O.sub.2] equivalence to cover all GHGs and measure their relative significance in terms of greenhouse gas intensity.

Because C[O.sub.2] is non-toxic, it does not pose a direct health risk as pollutants do. It is also a long-term phenomenon remaining in the atmosphere for approximately 100 years. We still have some C[O.sub.2] from tank emissions of the First World War. Hence C[O.sub.2] is a different kind of environmental problem from other emissions, and it is a global problem requiring a global solution. Emissions from Russia move east across the skies of North America and then on to Europe and beyond. Saving a million tons of C[O.sub.2] in Russia is environmentally...

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