Brewing season for 'cane alchemists: this year's hurricane season may churn out even more storms than last year's historic season, according to forecasts. But predictions will mean squat to insurers if all these storms stay out to sea.(CATASTROPHIC RISKS)

After a brutal season last year, Mother Nature may be brewing some more overdue bad luck for the U.S. coastline this season.

The present season, according to the most recent hurricane forecasts, could be a repeat of last year, if not worse. Insurers facing the eye of the storm (or eyes) can find little comfort in these predictions, as well as little to act on.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast for 2005, which Richard Pasch, hurricane expert at the National Hurricane Center, and his colleagues released in May (the last comes out in early August), predicts a total of 12 to 15 named storms to form in the Atlantic. Three to five of these could become major hurricanes.

The overall prediction for the season's destructive force, measured by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE Index, which totals all storms' wind speeds squared, ranges from 120 percent to 190 percent of average, according to Pasch.

This NOAA forecast, along with other preseason midrange predictions from William Gray's team at Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre of the University College London, tends to whip up a tempest of news coverage when released.

But for insurers working in long-term risk, these announcements aren't much more useful for assessing exposure than their local five-day forecast.

"It is a moot point," says Steve Smith, atmospheric physicist and vice president of ReAdvisory, part of…