The workplace in 2020: three scenarios.(Trends: Position Yourself in the Future)

HOW WILL SMART PRODUCTS, INTERCONNECTED WORKERS, AND INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL INFLUENCE EACH OTHER IN THE FUTURE? HERE ARE THREE SCENARIOS FOR THE YEAR 2020 DEVELOPED BY THE ASTD COUNCIL OF GOVERNORS.

SCENARIO #1. THE BASE CASE "THE WAVE"

Variables: High market for smart products High degree of connectivity High ability of intellectual capital to attract hard capital

The big enduring corporations of the late 20th century have given way to small, agile groups that come together to capitalize on a business opportunity and then dissolve. The pioneers and heroes of this new era in business are the people squeezed out by big businesses in the 1990s. They understand the power that high connectivity has put in people's hands no matter where they are. Nowadays organizations struggle to adapt to these quicksilver entrepreneurs. In the new workplace contract, the value provided by the organization is the questionable element.

Employees are universally known as performers since that term more accurately describes the nature of their role in the workplace. Work and learning are linked through information technologies. Their democratizing influence has smoothed out national differences in economic development, although local culture still determines the pace of advancement and the flavor of a country's engagement with the electronic marketplace. Many countries are more concerned about raising their digital literacy rates than their GNPs.

Customers have substantially more power than producers of products and services and they tend to place their loyalty in products rather than companies, even though product life-cycles have been driven almost to real time. These days, learning opportunities are built into products themselves and makers of smart products …