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Byline: Peter Gorner
Dec. 13--In the months to come, Americans will decide whether to get themselves and their children vaccinated against smallpox, the demonically contagious variola virus that killed as many as 500 million people before being eradicated 30 years ago.
President Bush said this week that his vaccination program, to be formally announced Friday, will make the vaccine available to all U.S. residents who want it, perhaps by 2004.
Should you get the shot? Your children?
History will offer little guidance.
Experts estimate that of every 1 million people who got the vaccine in the past, 1 or 2 died and another 52 suffered life-threatening reactions--but those same experts have little confidence in that old statistic's accuracy and have no idea if it would apply now.
The current population is so different, with millions of people with immune-depressed diseases like HIV, with organ transplants and autoimmune disorders like eczema and asthma, that some fear the rate of complications could be much higher than in the past.
And someone who got the vaccine as a child and did not have an adverse reaction has no guarantee that he or she wouldn't have one now.
What is known is that there have been no reported cases of smallpox in a generation and the threat of the disease is…