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Even after the destruction from the Dec. 26 tsunami, the economic outlook for Southeast Asia remains strong for 2005. And the longer-term outlook for the 10 member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations appears positive as regional economic integration picks up its pace. Despite the widespread destruction along the coasts of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, their overall economies were largely untouched. Nor was the region's outlook for trade growth changed, because most of the major ports and supporting infrastructure were unscathed. If anything, the region's trade may increase--at least on the import side--as the three countries begin to import more heavy equipment and materials to aid in their reconstruction efforts.
"Our view is that the tsunami's impact is less than a half of 1 percent of GDP growth," said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of Global Insight, a Boston economic research and forecasting firm. "We think most of the impact will be in the first quarter, but the economies will then rebound as reconstruction begins and …