The next rebirth of the media.(Knight Ridder Newspapers)

Byline: Edward Wasserman

We naturally assign great importance to things that are right in our faces. With the media, we're impressed with all those new television channels because we see all the programs they carry. We know that high definition TV is big because we see the flat screens and the flawless pictures. We may notice that more and more music, radio and TV are poking onto the Internet.

But we don't really get it, not the big picture. In fact, the entire media landscape is undergoing basic, fundamental, change. A decade from now, much of what we take for granted will be morphed beyond recognition.

What's vanishing is technical scarcity, and media franchises built on scarcity _ as most are _ will either remake themselves or die. That's a conclusion you couldn't help but draw from a recent four-day gathering of academics and executives that I attended on the future of television, held in New York by the International Radio and Television Society Foundation.

Start with what media analyst Tom Wolzien calls the capacity explosion _ exemplified by the DSLs, cable modems, wireless and other Internet hookups _ which has multiplied the number and size of information channels we get.

Add the rampant growth in home media capabilities, especially the ability to put aside content and view it when you like. Wolzien estimates that the capacity to store movies, music and data of all kinds at home is rising 72 percent a year, while storage costs are falling. What it costs to keep 57 movies today will store 2,000 five years from now.

With broadband Internet flowing in to your PC, personal video recorder, iPod, even your cellphone, you will be able to access what you like, when you like.