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In a development that seemed unthinkable only weeks ago, Bill McBride has eliminated Janet Reno's huge lead, putting the candidates in a virtual dead heat heading into their Sept. 10 Democratic gubernatorial primary, a new poll shows.
Reno had a narrow advantage, 40 percent to 38 percent, in a poll of Democratic voters taken for The Herald and the St. Petersburg Times. The voters were interviewed Wednesday and Thursday, following Tuesday night's televised debate.
Given the survey's margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, the race is a statistical tie, said pollster Rob Schroth of Schroth & Associates, who conducted the survey jointly with Kellyanne Conway of The Polling Company.
Given his momentum, McBride may have even pulled ahead since the poll was taken, Schroth said.
''The poll conclusively demonstrates that Janet Reno is on the verge of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory,'' Schroth said, putting McBride's odds of victory as 1-in-2 and Reno's as 1-in-3. He said Reno's hopes for victory depend on a big turnout among her three prime constituencies: the elderly, black voters and South Florida residents.
In April, McBride trailed the former U.S. attorney general by 30 points in a survey conducted by Schroth for both newspapers.
If McBride can slip past Reno and her fabled red truck, it will be one of the biggest upsets in Florida political history.
Source: HighBeam Research, McBride, Reno in virtual tie, poll shows.(Knight Ridder Newspapers)