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WASHINGTON, DC--Estimates of available productive capacity for natural gas during 2003 are developed and compared to forecasted natural gas demand in the latest edition of Natural Gas Productive Capacity For the Lower-48 States, released in April by the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Available productive capacity appears sufficient to meet the level of demand for natural gas production forecast in EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook. However, the relatively narrow margin of surplus capacity--roughly 10% of the projected 51.4 billion cubic feet per day average production rate required to meet gas demand in 2003--limits the available production response to any sudden demand increase or drop in production, according to the report.
Withdrawals of stored natural gas can normally respond to such problems, but gas storage levels are now at record lows. Therefore, the narrow surplus margin indicates a significant potential for short-term price increases in the event of such contingencies.
Maintaining or increasing gas well drilling is critical to maintaining or increasing gas productive capacity. Wells producing for one year or less contribute between ...