A Shot heard round the world: Kyoto takes effect. Will it make a difference?(Editorial: opinions and commentary from the editor)(Editorial)

Although the Kyoto protocol finally became effective on February 15, 2005, after years of wrangling, it is still fair game to ask whether the treaty will ultimately be effective. The February 14th Wall Street Journal reported that even some of the most ardent European Union supporters of the treaty will not meet Kyoto's emissions targets without undertaking even more aggressive reductions strategies. Canada faces probably the most difficult task, owing to its status as the second most emissions intensive nation and its growing role as the exporter of energy derived from Alberta's oil sands. Extracting oil from the sands requires burning a great deal of fossil fuel, which yields yet more emissions, as the industry currently operates. The Journal also reports that even the United Kingdom, the only nation on track to meet emissions targets, may have to scale back its efforts because of corporate concerns about the cost of compliance.

On the other hand, U.S.-based companies may yet be coerced into complying with Kyoto, even though the U.S. Congress never ratified the treaty during the Clinton administration, and the Bush administration repudiated the pact entirely. Large U.S.-based multinationals' participation in emerging domestic and international emissions markets, the U.S. government's support for free market emissions reductions efforts, and public and shareholder concerns all indicate that the U.S. is not entirely hostile to Kyoto's goals. The European Union's insistence on regulating economic activity will certainly force some companies into ...