Has the recovery begun? (Fein-Lines).(Brief Article)(Statistical Data Included)

The turn around has begun; do you feel better yet?

One of the tasks that keeps me busy these days is the significant interview processes needed to complete the market research studies and market data due for publication by Spring 2002. By way of explanation, there is money out there for good ideas once again, but unlike the late-1990s, it is not as easy to convince the various VC's or even company boards to part with it. Getting funding now requires a good business plan, and a good marketing plan, with the assumptions clearly identified and verified by market research. Good market research requires many one-on-one discussions with the targeted market. Thus, the interview work is presently underway by myself and my partners in the Quantum Performance Group and, I expect, in similar market research firms.

We are seeing a number of interesting trends. One is that there seems to be a more open attitude to change and new ideas. There are many new processes and materials under development. There are many companies that are investing and preparing for the future. Bob Neves at Microtek Labs recently told me that he is investing heavily to meet future demand, even as he nervously watches the market. On the other hand, there are many companies simply trying to survive, enduring the downturn by cutting costs.

No matter what actions you have taken over the past 18 months, you should be seeing some improvement by the time you read this, assuming you have held constant market share or better. Our surveys clearly indicate market conditions are improving. It is not strong, and it is not being seen in all segments as yet, but it is there and measurable. The segment that seems to be feeling it first (as of mid-January) is telecommunications. Those that service this segment have been virtually universal in reporting an improvement that started in early December.

The storm is ...