Bush's sales pitch.(Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service)

The following editorial appeared in the Providence Journal on Thursday, 3-1:

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George W. Bush's first address to a joint session of Congress was designed to pump up public confidence in his leadership and priorities, especially in his proposal for a $1.6 trillion tax cut. The president did a superb job Tuesday night, striking a moderate tone, showing appropriate respect for members of the opposing party, explaining himself simply and directly, projecting calmness and self-confidence _ even poking some gentle fun at himself at times. His appeal to members to live up to the noble calling of public service was most welcome after the grotesque tawdriness and partisan character assassination of the last few years.

But he still has not sold us on the tax cut he is seeking, because his argument is predicated on 10-year predictions of budget surpluses that may prove to be a mirage, and because any reduction should be more focused than is Mr. Bush's plan on low- and middle-income taxpayers.

Under President Bush's math, the country can well afford to let taxpayers keep $1.6 trillion of the projected $5.6 trillion budget surplus over the next 10 years. He maintains that leaves plenty of money to reduce the national debt and to provide Social Security benefits. Maybe.

The problem is that Mr. Bush treats those surplus projections as if they were marble monuments; in truth, they are written in sand, constantly amended with each ebb and flow of the economy, since tax revenues are bound closely to economic activity. And within hours after Mr. Bush's speech, new government figures showed that, in the last quarter of 2000, the economy had the slowest growth in five years.

Democrats, of course, were quick to mock Mr. Bush's ...