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Non-Mideast imports seen benign option for U.S. (petroleum imports)
Non-Mideast Imports Seen Benign Option for U.S.
Though the U.S. will become increasingly dependent on foreign oil in the coming decade, reliance on the Mideast probably can be avoided, James Newcomb of Cambridge Energy Research Associates told EUN.
"If we see higher oil prices and higher development drilling between now and 1990, we may have Mexico and Venezuela ease our way out, without dramatic intervention,' said Newcomb, who is associate director of the consulting firm, based here.
The U.S. obtained 33 percent of its oil supply from foreign sources last year. A recent federal study puts 1995 dependence at somewhere between 47 percent to 58 percent. Since 1973, the extent of U.S. need for foreign oil has ranged from 27 to 46 percent.
Newcomb acknowledges that low or erratic prices might create a grimmer situation, speeding the U.S. oil production decline and slowing new oil investment in Mexico and Venzuela.
Such developments would push the U.S. toward greater need for Mideast oil by 1990 and toward a panicky reaction in Washington, Newcomb said in an interview.
Washington's reliance on the free market will be trimmed, he thinks, once the point of 50 percent dependence is reached. Quotas or an import fee are among the possibilities.
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