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Original Source: FD (FAIR DISCLOSURE) WIRE
. Monique Elwell, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., VP, IR . Tom Toomey, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., President & CEO . Chris Genry, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., EVP & CFO . Mark Wallis, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., Senior EVP . Martha Carlin, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., SVP . Scott Shanaberger, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., SVP & Chief Accounting Officer
3Q04 results were as expected at $0.39 for FFO before a $0.04 charge for hurricane damage. Co. announced a number of significant acquisition and sales totaling $1.1b. Co. has tightened its range of guidance for 4Q04 FFO to $0.38-0.39 bringing the full-year range to $1.50-1.51 per share. Q&A Focus: Markets, G&A, Essex portfolio, concessions, and guidance.
A. Key Data From Call 1. 3Q04 FFO = $0.39. 2. 4Q04 FFO = $0.38-0.39 per share. 3. Full-year FFO = $1.50-1.51 per share.
S1. 3Q04 Performance (T.T.) 1. Overview: 1. Results were as expected at $0.39 for FFO before a $0.04 charge for hurricane damage.
2. During 3Q04, Co. announced a number of significant acquisition
and sales totaling $1.1b. 3. UDR has reached a milestone in a three-year effort to reposition its national portfolio.
1. Approx. 50% of Co.'s 2005 estimated NOI will come from high
growth markets of California, Florida, and Metropolitan DC. 2. About 16% of Co.'s 2005 estimated NOI will come from Southern California. 2. Operation Results: 1. Occupancy was up 90 BP YoverY, up in 63% of Co.'s market. 1. Up 30 BP sequentially, up in 66% of Co.'s markets. 2. Occupancy ended the qtr. at 94.7%. 3. The trend in rent per occupied home or cash put in the bank was positive. 1. Since June, it was $708 per occupied home.
2. Co. increased it each sequential month to $714 in September. 1. 67% of Co.'s markets enjoyed this positive trend. 4. Looking ahead to leases expiring in 4Q04, on avg. are $17 below Co.'s current rents. 5. Utility recovery rate continues to show improvement.
6. Co.'s reimbursements YTD are averaging $22 per occupied home
per month, an increase of $3 per home or 16% over prior years.
7. Co.'s overall recovery rate for utility has improved from 46%
to 51% last year. 8. During 3Q04, Co. gave $309 per move-in.
1. The aforementioned revenue metrics demonstrate that UDR: 1. Starts to see more pricing power in the majority of its markets. 2. Customers are responding to asset quality programs. 3. Co. is carrying the best occupancy into the slow leasing period in the last three years signaling good prospects for 4Q04 and 2005.
2. Offsetting these gains in revenue was the increase in expenses YoverY of 4%. 9. A portion of the increase was permanent and a portion of this was temporary. 1. On the temporary front, with the increase in occupancy, Co. turned approx. 13% more homes than prior years. 1. This led to one-time increase in repair and maintenance.
2. On a permanent level, Co. has reduced its associate turnover
to an annual rate of 40%. 1. This is down from 48% in prior years, resulting in poor employment along with rising pay and benefit cost. 3. Approx. 25-30% of Co.'s 4% increase is due to higher volume in temporary. 10. Recovery Trends: 1. Jobs: 1. National job growth will be about 1.5% or 2m jobs for 2005. 2. UDR markets are expected to see double the national rate. 1. Co. is expecting 3% job growth in its marketplaces. 3. UDR's top 15 markets representing 70% of its 2005 NOI, these markets lost 20,000 jobs in 2003. 1. In 2004, the markets are estimated to generate 295,000
jobs and this is expected to jump to 500,000 jobs in 2005.
2. Construction: 1. The National Association of Home Builders is forecasting multifamily construction at about 330,000 homes for 2005, a slight decrease from 2004. 1. Condos now represent nearly 35% of the current deliveries, up from historical averages of 25%. 2. All forecasts have not taken into account the recent
rapid rise of construction costs and fuel costs and the 330,000 is heavy and probably will come down. 3. Interest Rates: 1. Very few economists use oil prices north of $50 when talking about interest rates. 1. Oil climbed from $30 a barrel a year ago and was $40 a barrel in 2Q04. 2. With the rise in fuel costs over the last year, it is estimated that every individual home or household is having to increase expenditure related to fuel by $1,000. 1. This will be a drag on UDR's ability to raise rents. 3. Almost all businesses rely upon transportation to deliver their goods or to secure their resources. 1. With the rise in fuel costs, it is a matter of time before that is putting pressure on their margins, which may cause disruption in the employment number.
2. High fuel costs will retard economic growth, thereby keeping short-term interest rates low. 4. Co. sees no change in the housing environment. 1. UDR sees in this environment of modest economic growth in which operating incomes will continue to grow, while
values should be slightly negative impacted by rising interest rates slightly. 4. Markets: 1. Four-star markets, in which Co. sees revenue growth will be greater than 4% in 2005 via positive trends in occupancy, rent per occupied home, reimbursements, and
concessions. 1. Some of these markets are Orlando, Tampa, DC, Austin, Southern California, or 34% of Co.'s 2005 NOI. 2. Three-star markets, which revenue growth will be between 3-4% in 2005. 1. These are Baltimore, Wilmington, Richmond, and Norfolk, or 17% of Co.'s NOI. 3. Two-star markets, revenue growth between 1.5-3.0%.
1. These markets include Nashville, Charlotte, Raleigh, and
Seattle, or 25% of Co.'s portfolio. 4. One-star markets, in which revenue growth will be flat-to-negative. 1. It includes Houston, Dallas, and Columbus. 5. 51% of Co.'s portfolio is positioned in markets that will generate revenue growth greater than 3% next year.
11. Acquisition Pipeline: 1. UDR closed in 3Q04, $301m of acquisitions at a 5.6 (Phonetic) cap rate. 2. UDR will close in 4Q04, $530m at 5.7. 1. 323 of that was announced in the Essex transaction of 5.5,
$95m at a 5.7 from the Pacific transaction previously announced.
1. There was approx. $122m of a Florida portfolio. 3. UDR will close in 2005, $400m. 1. Under contract is $171m of that in the Essex at a 5.8 cap rate. 2. Under due diligence $200m at cap rates between 5.7- 6.3. 12. Sales Pipeline: 1. During 3Q04, UDR closed 59m at a 5.3 cap. 2. In 4Q04, UDR has closed 20m at an 8.1 cap. 1. Co. will close in 4Q04, 91m at an 8.6 cap. 3. Listed and actively marketed is $170m at a 5.6 cap. 13. Summary: 1. Cap rate remains at historical lows and continued improvement in multifamily fundamentals, low interest rates and investor demand.
2. Lending practices: 1. In a recent quote …