PUBLIC OPINION 30 YEARS AFTER ROE v. WADE.

The first step in securing the constitutional protection of the right to life is a realistic assessment of the situation we face. Since we must persuade a majority of our fellow citizens to accept our goal, public opinion polls are an important tool in this assessment. Let's be clear here: the point is not to have our values shaped by opinion polls, but to use them to develop strategies of education and persuasion so that the majority accepts pro-life principles and acts on them.

So where do we stand after over 43 million legal abortions, 30 years of Roe v. Wade, and over 30 years of pro-life work? (In this review I am relying mainly on special reports authored by Lydia Saad of the Gallup Organization and polls by Gallup, the Los Angeles Times, and Newsweek.)

According to the latest Gallup poll, 23% say abortion should be "legal under any circumstances," 15% want it "legal under most circumstances," 42% want to restrict it to "legal only in a few circumstances," and 19% want it to be "illegal in all circumstances." In 1975, the numbers for "always legal" and "always illegal" were at 21% and 22%, respectively. From there the "always legal" segment rose to 33% by 1995. Then, as Lydia Saad noted, coinciding with our campaign to ban partial-birth abortions, support for the "always legal" position began to deteriorate. For the last several years, only about 25% have adhered to the strict pro-abortion position and about 20% have supported the strict pro-life position.

A differently phrased poll (Los Angeles Times, June 2000) had these results: 43% for "always legal," 46% for "illegal, except for rape, incest, or to save the mother's life," and 8% for "illegal without any exceptions." On election day 2000, the numbers had shifted in the pro-abortion direction: 50%, 38%, and 12%, respectively (Los Angeles Times, November 7, 2000). The shift is in part explained by an unusually heavy representation of California voters in the sample. By March 2001, the numbers had moved back to 42%, 41%, and 12%, respectively. According to these polls, anywhere from 50% to 54% want to make abortion either altogether illegal or restrict it to cases of rape, incest, and to save the mother's life.

Most abortions (88%) are performed in the first trimester (New York Times Almanac 2003). And only 4% of abortions are done for reasons of (1) the woman's health (3%) or (2) pregnancy caused by rape or incest (1%), according to data available on the web site of the pro-abortion Alan Guttmacher Institute.

Given these facts, what are the polling results with regard to abortion by trimester and reasons for abortion?

Most respondents (66%) favor abortion being legal in the first trimester, 29% are opposed. After that there is strong opposition: For the second trimester the numbers are 25% legal vs. 68% illegal, and for the third trimester the numbers are 10% legal vs. 84% illegal (Gallup, January 2003).