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COPYRIGHT 1998 Transaction Publishers, Inc.
Introduction
Until very recently military service was not a routine career option for American girls and young women to consider. The military traditionally has been a male institution, though women historically have served in many countries when they were needed (Segal, 1995). Despite the large numbers of women who served in World War II (265,000 were on active duty in 1945), their representation was 2 percent or less until the advent of the all-volunteer force in 1973. Since then it has risen, sometimes sharply, sometimes gradually, and now stands at approximately 14 percent of all active duty personnel (WREI, 1998). Women's participation in the armed forces of other nations has also been increasing (Segal, 1995).
In a related social change, the number of military jobs from which women are excluded has declined over the past twenty-five years. Women are now permitted in over 90 percent of all active-duty job categories in each of the services (91 percent Army, 93 percent Marines, 96 percent Navy, 99 percent Air Force, 100 percent Coast Guard). The percentage of actual positions open to women varies from 62 percent in the Marine Corps and 70 percent in the Army to 94 percent in the Navy, 99 percent in the Air Force, and 100 percent in the Coast Guard (WREI, 1998). (The effects of the ground combat exclusions can be seen most clearly in the Marine Corps: despite the fact that 93 percent of job categories are open to women, the high proportion of actual slots that are combat infantry results in the much lower figure of 62 percent available for women to fill.) For purposes of comparison, in 1972, "only 35 percent of all military enlisted job specialties were open to women" (Binkin and Bach, 1977: 17).
Media attention to women's military participation is likely to increase the degree to which girls and young women see the services as offering viable jobs and careers for them. Approximately 41,000 women were deployed to the Persian Gulf between August 1990 and February 1991 (Eitelberg, 1991), and the extensive media coverage certainly increased public awareness of women's military roles. Women made up about 7 percent of all military personnel deployed (including all ranks and active duty and reserve personnel combined). The Army accounted for the vast majority of these women. More recent attention to sexual harassment and other issues of military gender integration may be shedding mostly negative light on the services, but it has also increased the public salience of women's military service.
What effects have the increases in women's military roles and public attention to them had on women's propensity to join the military? Most research on young people's propensity to enlist focuses on men; many reports include analysis only of data on men (despite titles that do not indicate the exclusion of women [e.g., Orvis, Sastry, and McDonald, 1996]). The rationale for excluding women is sometimes that men constitute the prime recruiting market or that women's propensity is too low to bother studying it; more often, no rationale is given. However, it is unlikely that the armed services would have been able to meet their enlistment goals in the all-volunteer force without the increased enlistment of women (Binkin and Bach, 1977; Segal, 1989; Segal and Segal, 1991).
In this article we explore sex differences in the propensity to enlist, as well as sex differences in the relationship between propensity and actual service. We also examine how characteristics of men and women affect their propensity and actual service, and we analyze differences between preferences and expectations regarding military service. Finally, we examine the post-high school activities of men and women who do not serve despite high propensity.
Methods
Data Set
Our data are from the Monitoring the Future (MtF) surveys conducted by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. The study design has been described extensively elsewhere (Bachman, Johnston, and O'Malley, 1996). MtF employs a cohort-sequential research design that involves annual surveys of nationally representative samples of high school seniors, beginning in 1976,(1) and annual follow-up surveys mailed each year to subsamples from each class sample in the years following graduation.(2)
Enlistment Propensity: Concept and Measures
"Enlistment propensity" or "military propensity" includes individuals' interests and desires, as well as their plans and expectations, regarding military service (Asch and Orvis, 1994; Bachman et al., forthcoming a).
In each form of the senior year questionnaire, respondents are asked a series of questions about their plans after high school. One question, measuring expectations, is, "How likely is it that you will do each of the following things after high school?" One of the activities listed is "serve in the armed forces" and all respondents are asked to choose from four alternative answers: "definitely won't," "probably won't," "probably will," and "definitely will." In the follow-up questionnaire, respondents are asked, "Now we'd like to know about some things you are doing now, or have done, or plan to do. Please look at each activity listed below, and mark the circle that shows how likely you are to do EACH." One of the activities listed is "serve on active duty in the armed forces" and all respondents are asked to choose from the following alternatives: "I'm doing this now," "I have done this,"...
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