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Despite rosy earnings reports from some closely watched corporations, the Great Recession is far from over, according to the latest economic data from the Commerce Department. America's GDP, which shrank at an annualized rate of 6.3 percent in the last quarter of 2008, was expected to decline at a rate of about 5 percent for the first quarter of this year. Instead, it fell 6.1 percent, suggesting that last year's meltdown continues more or less apace.
Exports shrank by 30 percent--worse than last year's fourth quarter showing--and business inventories declined by more than $103 billion. Consumer spending did rise, although not enough to offset other declines.
Such statistics are notoriously unreliable indicators of future economic growth, predicated as they are on the Keynesian economic assumption that spending and consumption, not savings, spur economic ...