NACM Credit Managers' Index: report for April 2009.(CMI)

The seasonally adjusted Credit Managers' Index (CMI) rose another 1.3% in April after rising by 2.5% in February and 0.5% in March. This marks the third month in a row for growth after six months of contraction. "There had been concern that the April numbers might have been lower, but they came closer to matching the more robust pace in February," commented NACM Economist Chris Kuehl, Ph.D. This increase matches up well with the data coming from other sources, most notably, the increase in consumer confidence seen in several national surveys. As in past reports, there are still a number of components in the combined index still below the 50 level, but more of them are trending in a positive direction. Sales have continued to rise as have new credit applications, dollar collections and the amount of credit extended. "All in all, the index of favorable factors increased quite substantially from 43.1 to 44.8, marking the highest reading since November 2008 when the real economic collapse began to manifest itself," said Kuehl. "There are no index values above 50 as of yet, so all are still in the contraction zone, but the trending is in the right direction." The unfavorable factors did not show as much positive change, but there was some movement in the right direction--fewer bankruptcies and a reduced dollar amount of customer deductions. The other factors remained fundamentally the same as in March and some tracked a bit more negatively, particularly disputes.

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This marks the third month of positive data in a row from the CMI and that has tended to presage some of the positive data that is just starting to develop in other surveys. Kuehl pointed out that conditions have started to improve in select parts of the economy and faster than had been originally indicated by many economists. "The consumer is more confident than expected, the markets came off the bear market ...