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As the strategic and economic value of oil skyrocketed during the first half of this year, many experts declared that the global distribution of power is rapidly shifting to oil exporters--specifically, Russia and the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This belief has led to a lot of talk about the rise of "authoritarian capitalist" great powers and "the return of history."
But let's imagine--as The National Interest asked me to do--that the summer of 2008 turns out to be the all-time peak of oil prices, and that the end of the oil era is imminent. The first instinct is to assume that in this world--a world in which oil would ...