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The Iranian fallout.(Iran's nuclear activities)

The National Interest

| September 01, 2008 | Kay, David | COPYRIGHT 2008 The National Interest, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

IT WOULD be both impossible and foolish to predict what lies immediately ahead for Iran. Will the United States or Israel drop bombs on the country? Will there be more sanctions? Air strikes? Negotiations? Threat assessment and war planning are (or at least should be) all about best-guessing capabilities and intentions. We need to make sound judgments about what a state can actually achieve, the leadership's possible goals and the prospects for a bridgeable peace among the main actors in the crisis.

When it comes to Iran, these calculations are difficult to make. The country is a chimera. Tehran's statements and intentions are often contradictory; displays of ...

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