Averting catastrophe.(Letter to the editor)

SIR. Quadrant is certainly giving the climate change sceptics plenty of oxygen. Ray Evans heads up your September issue with an eight-page article, his third article this year, followed by a six-page article by Ian McFadyen, an imaginative attempt to pin the label "religious fanatic" on the climate change activists. The quid pro quo, I hope, is an opening up of debate covering both sides of this issue.

Two catastrophe groups seem to be operating at full volume in Australia. One is the "climate catastrophe" group, telling us that unless we take major steps now to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and ensure that all other nations do the same, the result will be catastrophic changes by the end of the century, and perhaps by 2050. Many of the Greens are in this group. This first group will not have much control of policy, because it is just not possible to achieve major worldwide reduction in emissions any time soon, with two major developing countries rapidly increasing their emissions. Stabilising total emissions worldwide by around 2020, followed by steady reductions, would be a remarkable achievement. There would need to be a level of international co-operation greater than anything we've achieved in the past.

The second group I might term the "economic catastrophe" group. Ray Evans belongs firmly in this camp, seemingly claiming that if Australia does anything to attempt to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, the result will be economic disaster. This seems to be way over the top. Ross Garnaut has recently recommended emission reduction goals which are quite modest, to the fury of the Greens (and probably to cries of scorn from some of the sceptics), but it's a start. The Rudd government will no doubt rely on advice from Treasury as well as Garnaut, and would be most unlikely to announce policies which would endanger the economy. They have given every indication that they will protect low income earners, and also industries which would otherwise suffer unfair foreign competition from countries without emission reduction programs.

By February there will be a new US President. The two candidates are both in favour of programs to reduce US greenhouse gas emissions, indeed I believe that McCain is a sponsor of one of the four emission reduction programs being considered by Congress. Next year could see America well and truly on the move. At the end of 2009 there will be an all-important climate conference in Copenhagen. If Australia can turn up at that conference with an emissions control plan in place we will get a hearing. If we take the same dog-in-the-manger approach that we took at Kyoto in 1997, the reaction will be very negative indeed. With our very high rates of emission per capita, countries to our north, including India, Indonesia and China, will look at ...