Push for peace.

(From Guardian Unlimited)

Middle East diplomacy is not the natural home of optimism, but even among jaded veterans of the region there is a faint sense of opportunity in the air. You might even call it hope.

It is not just the widespread expectation that Barack Obama will win the US presidential race on Tuesday, and the fact that anyone with Hussein as a middle name is likely to come to the Arab world with a natural advantage.

More importantly, there are consistent reports from America that work on the transition to a new administration is already underway. This is critical because when Bill Clinton first entered the Oval Office in 1993 and again with the current incumbent in 2001, it took the best part of a year for them to get their foreign policy teams in position.

The Obama camp is determined to learn from those mistakes and hit the ground running if its man wins. There are also signs that rapid progress in the Middle East is central to its agenda for the first 100 days. Some in Washington tip Dennis Ross, Bill Clinton's Middle East envoy, for a senior post, perhaps even national security adviser. That would send a powerful signal of intent.

That signal and the surrounding air of urgency will be needed. If Obama wins, he is unlikely to have the luxury of easing himself into the job at home or abroad. Those crises that have not already detonated will be flying at him fast and from all directions. There is a feeling, at least in the Foreign Office here in London, that if there is to be a window of opportunity to reshape the Middle East, it is unlikely to be open for long. In fact, the diplomats reckon, Obama will have under a year.

The thinking goes like this. If the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, manages to negotiate a year's extension to his presidency with the support of the Arab League, then he will have a mandate until January 2010 to negotiate a deal. Hamas could try to torpedo his efforts, but for the time being, the uneasy calm in Gaza seems to be serving its political interests. We might know more on how the land lies after Fatah-Hamas talks due in Egypt on November 9.