AccessMyLibrary provides FREE access to millions of articles from top publications available through your library.
. Keith Guericke, Essex Property Trust, President & CEO . John Eudy, Essex Property Trust, EVP Development . Mike Schall, Essex Property Trust, Senior EVP & COO . Mike Dance, Essex Property Trust, EVP & CFO . Dustin Pizzo, Banc of America Securities, Analyst . Alex Goldfarb, UBS, Analyst . Johnathan Averman, Analyst . Karin Ford, Keybanc Capital Markets, Analyst . Michael Bilerman, Essex Property Trust, Analyst . Anthony Paolone, JP Morgan, Analyst . Steve Sakwa, Merrill Lynch, Analyst . Michael Salinsky, TimesSquare Capital Management, Analyst . Rich Anderson, BMO Capital Markets, Analyst . Paula Poskon, Robert Baird, Analyst . John Lopez, Essex Property Trust, Economist
ESS reported that 2Q08 core FFO increased 11.7% per share.
S1. 2Q08 Overview (K.G.) 1. Highlights: 1. Single family permits for ESS' combined markets are down approx. 40% from 2Q07, representing about 0.4% of existing stock. 1. Multifamily is approx. the same. 2. Core FFO increased 11.7% per share. 3. Portfolio grew revenues 5.1% greater than 2Q07 and 1.3% on a sequential basis. 4. Saw some signs of stabilization in California existing home sales market. 1. Even though prices were down 21% and transactions were down 20% from previous year, tracking movement from QtoQ, traditional seasonal increase 2Q over 1Q was much stronger this year. 2. Transactions in markets were up sequentially 50% over 1Q08. 3. Last year same period, seasonal increase was only 8%. 5. Lower prices are inducing transactions, albeit below historical levels. 2. Seattle & Northern California: 1. Economies are doing well with exception of Oakland MSA, where outlying areas are more heavily affected by decrease in housing jobs. 2. Apartment markets performed at or above expectations through 1H08, with occupancy rates well above 95%. 3. Rent growth: 1. Northern California, 10%. 2. Seattle, 7.8%. 4. Southern California as of June YoverY, job growth across region remains weak. 1. Seeing signs that weakest sectors are beginning to stabilize. 2. Cuts in housing sector occurred at a much more rapid pace than anticipated. 3. Believes worst of big cuts are behind ESS. 3. Ventura & Orange: 1. Experienced disproportionately high growth in home financing jobs, with housing bubble that started in late 2001 and 2002. 2. Job losses in home finance sector began in early 2006 and accelerated in 2H07. 1. Believes worst losses have already occurred. 3. As of June, jobs in sector are back to late 2001 levels. 4. Expects these job markets will stabilize going forward and single family supply will continue to decline to even lower levels. 1. Does not expect to see significant job losses from a multiplier effect because home finance sector does not have significant sub industries that feed it. 4. Los Angeles (LA): 1. Home financing jobs cut back in LA. 1. Back to late 2002 levels. 2. Bubble was much smaller, relative to markets economy. 3. By comparison over the last 12-months, home financing jobs are down 6.5% of sector's total, 0.1% of total jobs in LA. 4. Seen a large reduction in residential construction jobs. 1. These have primarily been in North LA County, which has a little direct impact on downtown West LA and Long Beach where ESS' portfolio primarily is located. 5. Manufacturing jobs have been biggest drag on the economy. 1. Sees signs of improving conditions in this sector in 1H08 relative to 1H07. 5. San Diego: 1. Economy has outperformed rest of Southern California for the last 18 months. 2. Had considerable job losses relative to home construction. 3. San Diego is a much smaller exposure to home financing jobs and heavy manufacturing. 4. Manufacturing jobs are flat YoverY, and this trend is continuing. 1. Had strength in bioscience and other technology sectors. 5. Market occupancy remained above 95% and above levels from same period last year. 6. Cap Rates: 1. Continues to see softness, although number of transactions have been significantly smaller than typical. 2. Estimates cap rates have slipped another 25 BP moving across the board in each of markets. 3. For A/B products in: 1. Bay Area, spread is somewhere between 4.50% for Best and 5.75% for B. 2. Southern California, spread is probably 100 BP, 4.75-5.75%. 3. Seattle, 4.50-5.75%.
S2. Business Review (J.E.) 1. Highlights: 1. Active development pipeline, including Fund II transaction is comprised of eight developments under construction or 1,658 units, $622m. 1. ESS is about half way through construction process. 2. Completion and delivery to operations will occur fairly equally at rate of about $200m a year over the next three years, consistent with strategic plan. 2. During 2Q08, added to active development pipeline, Joule Broadway 295 units in Seattle in [Talisman place], 284 units in Sunnyvale. 2. Active Development Projects: 1. Eastlake 2851 in Seattle is now substantially complete and 94% leased as of yesterday. 2. Belmont Station in Los Angeles. 1. Last qtr., ESS reported it expected to begin occupancy in July. 2. Disappointed to report that occupancy will slip into 1H of Aug. and possibly as early as next week. 3. Due to partnership capital defaults from prior developer, ESS became the developer after construction started. 4. In this respect, did not fully understand extent, plans were not coordinated properly, and underestimated transition issues when ESS took over the developer role. 5. First 79 days since ESS opened, has 98 leases or over one-third of development leased and ready to occupy. 6. Moved stabilization date to June 2009. 7. If ESS continues to lease at current rate, will (indiscernible) significantly. 3. Balance of other active development projects including The Grand in Oakland, Fourth Street in Berkeley, Studio 4041 and Studio City and Seattle and Chatsworth are on time and on budget to date consistent with prior qtr.'s reporting. 4. On pre-development activities, ESS has chosen to be defensive on Essex Hollywood transaction. 1. Extended lease with tenant through July 2009, thereby delaying anticipated start date. 5. Cadence transaction in San Jose and Main Street transaction in Walnut Creek developments are both on track, and pending construction start in Jan. 2010. 3. Summary: 1. Seen additional pressure in metals and other oil-based materials such as asphalt and plastics. 1. Offset to material costs have netted out to annualized construction cost increases of less than 10%, which ESS has already built into its modeling.
S3. 2Q08 Operational Review (M.S.) 1. Details: 1. Long-term current conditions, all seem to point to lower supply of rental and for sale housing. 2. In short-term, operating conditions remain good in Southern California and strong in Northern California and Seattle. 3. Summer is ESS' peak leasing season. 1. Remains well positioned for remainder of 2008. 4. Northern California led the way with 10% same property revenue growth, well above 2008 guidance of 5.5-7.0%. 5. Seattle revenue growth exceeded top-end of 2008 guidance by 0.8%. 6. In Southern California, revenue growth remained near top of guidance, 1.5-3.0%. 1. Continues to have same challenges that were discussed on prior calls, largely related to localized supply or job loss issues. 7. OpEx grew at 3.6%, near high-end of guidance of 2.5-4.0%. 1. YoverY expenses were influenced by a couple of property specific issues and impact of new initiatives, including level one and YieldStar. 2. Guidance included large property tax reassessment at many of Seattle properties, which have contributed to their expense growth. 3. 2.5% sequential increase in expenses reflect cost aforementioned plus a seasonal increase in turnover, which ran at 42% annualized rate in 1Q08 and increased to 56% in 2Q08. 4. Expects OpEx to remain near high-end of guidance range for remainder of 2008. 8. Completed conversion of …