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New York -- Economists at Merrill Lynch, reacting to news that home loan delinquencies and foreclosures reached record highs in the first quarter, say that the banking industry is far from finished with bad-debt write-offs.
Economists Sheryl King and David Rosenberg, in the Merrill Lynch report, suggest that the record foreclosure level and the surge in "serious delinquencies" portend a flood of homes back on the resale market, which "will only add to the deflation in the real estate market."
The foreclosure inventory, at 2.47% of all mortgages outstanding, along with the surge in serious delinquencies, suggests that the foreclosure rate will head yet higher from the record level of the first quarter, they said. That leaves the mortgage industry and investors in mortgage assets facing "uncharted territory," the economists said.
They noted that the data, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, show that 480,000 homes faced foreclosure starts in the first quarter, double the number seen a year-and-a-half earlier in the third quarter of 2006.