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'CaliFlorida' the Nation's Barometer.
Washington -- As goes "CaliFlorida," so goes the nation's housing economy, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
That's because California and Florida, together, account for almost 19% of gross domestic product in the United States. Both states also led the nation's housing boom, with double-digit home price increases that lured homebuyers as well as investors to buy homes. High prices also fueled the popularity of loan products that helped stretch the buying power of consumers in those states.
With home prices now falling, many of those homebuyers are having trouble making payments on those loans or selling the homes to pay off their debt.
The pace of increase in foreclosures and delinquencies in those two states is driving national trend lines, according to Doug Duncan, chief economist of the MBA.
MBA research shows that California and Florida currently account for 42% of the nation's foreclosure starts for prime, adjustable-rate mortgage loans. For that to slow down, home prices will have to stabilize, Mr. Duncan told reporters on a conference call last week.
But California and Florida are not the only places where loan defaults are rising, he said, noting that states in the Upper Midwest also are experiencing elevated foreclosure activity.
"In those states, it is the economy that is driving the outlook," Mr. Duncan said.
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Source: HighBeam Research, 'CaliFlorida' the Nation's Barometer.