Hot spots: South Africa.(hot spots)

Ever since the populist Jacob Zuma trounced President Mbeki in the contest for the leadership of the ruling African National Congress (ANC) and became a hard-to-beat candidate for the 2009 presidential race, he and his supporters have been busy trying to convince the nervous financial and business communities that nothing much would change on the economic policy front if he took the helm. Such assurances should not be taken at face value, however. Not only does Mr. Zuma's political comeback conjure up the risk of a sharp left-ward turn after the presidential poll, but such a shift could begin much sooner, as the uneasy cohabitation of Mbeki with Zuma as ANC leader could turn the president into a lame duck well before his term in office has run its course.

What was surprising about the leadership conference the ANC held in mid-December was not so much that the 3900-odd delegates elevated Jacob Zuma to the position of their new chief with a hefty margin, but that they booed and heckled President Thabo Mbeki and his allies with such a vengeance that at times they could barely make themselves heard. The confab and its result were arguably the most significant developments in South African history since the end of Apartheid 13 years ago. Mbeki is not eligible to run for a third term in office. Had he been chosen as ANC chief, however, he would have been in a position to have a big say in picking the party's candidate for the 2009 elections.

Given the ANC's political control in South Africa, a control that includes the presidency, parliament, the administrations of all nine provinces and all the large municipalities, whoever heads the party can practically determine who the next president will be. Zuma has been coveting this position for a long time and, now that he is party leader, he has put himself in an excellent spot to make it happen. One potentially serious obstacle in his way is his past. Mbeki named Zuma, who has no formal education, deputy president in June 1999. He fired him six years later, following allegations that Zuma's financial adviser, Schabir Shaik, had tried to solicit a 500,000-rand bribe for him from a French arms company.

Zuma was later charged with corruption because Shaik allegedly had paid him 1.3 million rand in bribes to induce him to use his political influence to further Shaik's business interests. The accounting for these payments got Shaik convicted. Zuma was then charged with having raped a family friend half his age. In the end, he was acquitted of the rape charge and a court threw out corruption charges after prosecutors said they needed more time to investigate. Yet, just days before the ANC conference, legal authorities filed documents they say contain fresh evidence against him in the corruption case and, if he is re-charged in this matter, he could be jailed long before he can be sworn in as the new president.

Failing that, his road to the presidency would seem to be clear and he has been trying hard to convince the local and international ...