The surge of John McCain.(THE LAST WORD)

One of the most surprising developments in the unsettled GOP presidential race, which has featured three different winners in the first three major contests, is the sudden rise of Senator John McCain. Not long ago McCain's presidential bid was supposedly going nowhere. Then, after winning in New Hampshire, he surged in the polls to become, at least for the moment, the new national frontrunner.

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According to a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted between the New Hampshire and Michigan primaries, McCain is the preferred choice of 28 percent of Republican voters, more than double the support he had just a month ago. On the other hand, Rudy Giuliani, who for most of last year was viewed as the Republican frontrunner, has plummeted to 15 percent of the vote, less than half of what he had two months ago. That puts Giuliani not only behind McCain but behind Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney as well.

As we go to press two days after the Michigan primary, it remains to be seen if McCain's second-place finish to Mitt Romney in that state represents an end to McCain's surge. But Romney was expected to do well in Michigan, his native state.

Regardless of the duration of McCain's surge, it is still worth asking what is behind it? Is McCain's message resonating with Republicans? Are Republican voters flocking to him and fleeing the other candidates as soon as they find out what the Republican candidates stand for? Or are the voters more heavily influenced by other factors such as their perception of the candidates' character and experience? Are they influenced by the media buzz, including their perception as to who's "electable"? Are they even familiar with either the candidates or the issues?

If the exit polling data from New Hampshire can be trusted, a majority of the voters in that state's primary viewed personal qualities as being more important to their vote than the issues--52 percent as compared to 44 percent. McCain got 48 percent of the vote from the group of Republicans who view personal qualities as being more important than issues. But he got only 25 percent of the vote from Republicans who view issues as being more important.

Statistics can be misleading, particularly when samplings are extrapolated to represent the voters as a whole. But the statistics in this case do seem to reflect what both common sense and experience tell us: that there is often a disconnect between public opinion and the opinions of the candidates the voters vote for.