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Judging by recent earnings reports and economic reports, the depth and duration of the housing downturn may be more severe than most people in the industry have anticipated.
In July, that theme came into sharp focus. Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo, one of the industry's most successful entrepreneurs, advised investors that housing and mortgage performance may not rebound until 2009. He also said that in some markets, the drop in home values is worse than anything seen since the Great Depression.
He wasn't alone in recalibrating his assessment of market conditions. Just about everyone has tightened underwriting of subprime loans, especially in the broker origination channel. Option-payment ARMs, low downpayment products, and hybrid ARMs are performing more poorly than anticipated, and many expect the problem to get worse. Econmist Mark Zandi, of Moody's Economy.com, predicts that delinquency rates will continue to rise, putting some $1.4 trillion in outstanding Jumbo interest-only, alt-A and subprime credit quality home loans at "serious risk" of default and producing $459 billion of defaults this year and next.
In July, IndyMac announced more layoffs and said the ...