AccessMyLibrary provides FREE access to millions of articles from top publications available through your library.
Equity markets in the United States, with the exception of the sharp correction in February and March, have marched consistently higher since July 2006, breaching record levels. But with a significantly weaker U.S. dollar and slowing economic expansion, the question on the minds of most traders is whether the equity bull market is sustainable or are we approaching the ultimate blow-off top?
"If you look at a long-term chart, the momentum is still upwards," says Michael J. Zarembski, senior analyst for XpressTrade Inc. "There are only three weeks this year that it paid to be short."
But is it greed or fear that is driving equities? Michael Kimbarovsky, principal of Advocate Asset Management LLC, says the bull market is being driven more by a lack of supply than by demand. "It's really supply-based liquidity." He says that fear of not participating in the bull market has drawn cash into the market. "When you add liquidity to any scenario, it's like adding pure oxygen to a fire. Everything will go up," Kimbarovsky says. "The question is: how much is left?"
"I can't find any good reasons to be a bear," says Jason Leander, vice president at Rothschild Investment Corporation. He attributes the strength in equities to three factors: money has been plentiful and liquidity has been high; companies have been sitting on cash and using it to buy back shares removing them from circulation; and private equity is purchasing public companies at a premium, taking entire corporations out of circulation. "All these companies have gone private and you realize: Oh, Jeez, CDW is now private, and you won't be able to buy stock in that company anymore. You used to be able to put your money in and think about retiring, and you are not able to do that anymore." …