Engineering war: the pieces are being set for a "preemptive" attack on Iran, which would lead to disastrous consequences for the United States at home and abroad.(IRAN)(Cover story)

With U.S. forces already bogged down, stretched thin, and wearing out in Iraq and Afghanistan, will the Bush administration actually launch another war against an even larger, more formidable foe: Iran? Will it dare to do so without first obtaining the constitutionally required congressional declaration of war? And will it do so in spite of the marked shift in American public opinion in favor of withdrawal from Iraq?

Denials notwithstanding, the evidence suggests that the Bush administration is fully committed to a "pre-emptive" war against Iran, possibly as early as April. Though the administration claims that it is pursuing all diplomatic means available to avert a war with Iran, President Bush has been concentrating naval, air, and missile forces on Tehran's doorstep. Almost any provocation or pretext could now trip the hair trigger that has been put in place and unleash a full-scale war that would quickly dwarf the war in Iraq. It could also set in motion a whole series of catastrophic consequences--including major upheavals in Iraq and the Middle East, as well as 9/11-magnitude terrorist strikes in Europe and the United States.

One of the most likely results of a U.S. attack on Iran would be a huge and sudden increase in U.S. casualties in Iraq, as the pro-Iran Shiite militias and the Shiite government--the government we have put in power and are busy training and arming--openly turn against the U.S.-led coalition forces. Muktada al-Sadr, the radical Shiite cleric who commands the private militia known as the al-Mahdi Army in Iraq, has said he will attack our forces if the United States attacks Iran. Abd Aziz al-Hakim, head of the Tehran-backed Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and Adel Abd al-Mahdi, head of SCIRI's heavily armed Badr Brigades, have made similar threats.

Up to now, the U.S. military in Iraq has been engaged primarily in fighting the minority Sunni insurgency. Except for the battles against Shia forces in Najaf in 2004, and some other relatively minor battles with Shiites, most of the serious fighting over the last four years has been with the Sunnis. And our troops have had their hands full at that. The consensus among most military and intelligence experts is that President Bush's planned "surge" of 20,000-40,000 additional troops will not be adequate even to pacify and stabilize Baghdad against the Sunnis. If hundreds of thousands of Shiites join the fray, the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq will go from bad to worse.

American Buildup

Is an unprovoked U.S. attack on Iran really that imminent? Let us simply note that in the past couple months pieces have been shifted into place in such a way that it is difficult to imagine a triggering incident not occurring, whether by design or accident.

The build-up has been ominous. ...