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Washington, DC -- The American Gas Foundation released a study on February 14th that sets forth various directions that elected officials, energy companies, and communities may wish to take in order to meet natural gas demands, then projects what the outcomes of those choices might be. The report is entitled Natural Gas Outlook to 2020. Natural Gas Outlook to 2020 analyzes the effects of three alternate public policy scenarios on the U.S. natural gas market. Each scenario included five key variables: natural gas production from the lower-48 states, construction of a pipeline to transport natural gas from Alaska to the lower-48 states, imports of Canadian natural gas, imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via tanker ships and use of natural gas to generate electricity.
For example, the study's "status quo" Existing Policy scenario demonstrates what may occur if the United States does little to address natural gas market conditions. It found that wholesale natural gas prices would increase by 70%--from today's $5 or $6 per million British thermal units to more than $13 (in nominal dollars)--if an Alaskan natural gas pipeline is not operational by 2020, if no new LNG terminals are built, if the proportion of U.S. electricity generated with natural gas rises from 15 to 40%, and if restrictions on producing natural gas on federal lands remain in place.
In contrast, under ...