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Original Source: FD (FAIR DISCLOSURE) WIRE
. Richard Paoli, AVP Investments, Analyst . Larry Thede, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. . Tom Toomey, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., CEO, President, Director . Martha Carlin, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., EVP of Property Operations . Mark Wallis, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc., Senior EVP . Mike Ernst, United Dominion Realty Trust, Inc. . Paul Morgan, Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc., Analyst . Jonathan Litt, Citigroup, Analyst . Rob Stevenson, Morgan Stanley, Analyst . John Stewart, Credit Suisse, Analyst . Dennis Maloney, Goldman Sachs, Analyst . Rich Anderson, BMO Capital Markets, Analyst . Ross Nussbaum, Banc of America Securities, Analyst
. David Craig, Merrill Lynch, Analyst . Dave Rogers, RBC Capital Markets, Analyst
UDR reported 2007 FFO per share guidance of $1.80-1.90 and 2Q07 FFO per share guidance of $0.44-0.47.
A. Key Data From Call 1. 2007 FFO per share guidance = $1.80-1.90.
2. 2Q07 FFO per share guidance = $0.44-0.47.
S1. Business Review (T.T.) 1. Highlights: 1. During 1Q07, Co. held a well-attended Investor Day in which UDR announced the changing of the Co.'s name, vision, and four strategies to achieve this vision. 2. In 1Q07, Co. increased the dividend to $1.32 a share, a 5.6% increase. 3. Co. is pleased with 5.6% rent increase and UDR did give up 90 BP of occupancy. 4. Focus on using the Internet as the most cost effective source of residents is continuing to bear fruit with nearly 40% of traffic in 1Q07.
2. RE3: 1. UDR grew the development pipeline by a net $300m.
1. $2.2b is underway or under Co.'s control which represents
80% of $2.7b pipeline. 2. During 1Q07, RE3 generated $0.03 related to tax benefits. 3. Guidance in Jan. 2007, includes $0.03-0.04 from an anticipated sale of an asset during 1Q07. 1. Turns out this sale is under hard money contract and will close shortly.
4. In a quarterly supplement, Schedule 8-A, Co. has added current
qtr. NOI and projected stabilized NOI, as well as the details
of JV on 8-D. 3. Other Details: 1. In 1Q07, Co. absorbed $2.7m in dilution from kitchen and bath redevelopment and condo activities. 1. Was slightly up from $2.2m in 4Q06. 2. 1Q07 was well within the original anticipated $10m for this year. 2. The short-term reinvestment creates long-term NAV and increases prospects for better growth in the future. 4. Industry State: 1. UDR's Top 25 markets representing nearly 90% of NOI produced
one in every three jobs this last year. 2. Demographic drivers all remained intact and have positive momentum. 3. While new construction remains in an acceptable range, UDR is seeing some markets with supply from single family condos returning to the pool. 1. Regarding single family, historically when the housing market suffers, the apartment industry prospers. 2. This is evident in move outs to home ownership in 1Q07 at a four-year low of 16% and overall annualized turnover below 50%. 4. A short period in some markets to work out the imbalance of single family and condo business through continued job growth leading to results much like this qtr. with a 5-8% range in NOI growth anticipated over the next couple years coupled with a 4-5% dividend will generate a low-teen return. 1. This would be characterized as a normal market and Co. believes the capital flows into the apartments will remain strong during this period.
S2. Operations (M.C.) 1. Highlights: 1. Continued rent growth offset by somewhat softer occupancies resulted in revenue (indiscernible), in line with plan for 1Q07. 2. 1Q07 revenue and NOI growth were positive in every market. 1. While growth has moderated from a blistering pace of 2006, UDR is still positive about the overall industry fundamentals. 3. Job growth in Top 20 market is nearly twice the national avg. and continues to look strong. 4. Is starting to see benefits from tighter lending standards as
Co.'s move outs to home ownership declined in 1Q07 to 16%. 5. While occupancy has softened a bit, concessions remained moderate and UDR is well positioned to pick up occupancy going into peak leasing season. 1. Co. is already seeing increased leasing momentum towards the end of March and in April. 2. Resident turnover is down to an annualized rate of 48.6% or improvement of 360 BP vs. 2006. 6. Looking at the April numbers, Co. closed YoverY gap in
occupancy by 40 BP and revenue growth was up 60 BP over the
qtr. 7. Strongest markets continued to be on the West Coast.
1. Seattle. 2. Portland. 3. Bay Area. 4. Inland Empire. 8. Have some pockets in the Southeast and Southwest that are performing well. 1. Charlotte. 2. Austin.
3. Atlanta. 9. Markets with the greatest short-term challenges are in Florida and in military markets in Virginia, North Carolina, and Jacksonville, Florida. 2. Florida: 1. UDR is seeing the impact from the shadow supply of single family home and condo rentals as well as the completion of most of the reconstruction from 2004 hurricane having the greatest impact on two and three bedroom occupancy. 2. Even with the softer occupancy in Orlando and Tampa, UDR saw effective rent growth of 11% and 7% respectively in 1Q07 with relatively low concession. 1. Believes this should work itself out over the course of the year based on continued strong job growth in these markets. 3. Occupancy in the remaining military markets has been impacted by the troop surge and longer deployments for shifts and soldiers already deployed. 3. Expenses:
1. Continued to see the benefits of Co.'s focus on moving traffic
generation to low or no cost Internet sources as well as the
benefits of ROI capital investment program. 2. Benefited from a warmer than normal 1Q07 in most markets as well as renegotiated GAAP contracts at the low point of that market. 1. All of the above-mentioned combined with a slightly better 1Q07 and insurance losses resulted in continued low expense growth. 3. Co. is seeing leasing momentum pick up and expects to close the occupancy gap YoverY towards the end of 2Q07.
S3. Operational Details (M.W.) 1. Highlights: 1. Demand for the ownership of apartments remains strong. 2. Did not see any softening in cap rates. 1. California and Seattle remains at a Sub-5 level.
2. In the strong job markets such as Phoenix and Dallas, Co. is at low five's. 3. In the Metro DC, cap rates are sub-5, even with a softer condo market there. 3. Job growth remains positive and this bodes well for many of Co.'s markets like:
1. Houston. 2. Phoenix. 3. Dallas. 4. Bellevue.
5. The Inland Empire. 6. Washington D.C. 7. Los Angeles, Glendale. 2. Houston: 1. During this past qtr., Co. closed in a 13-acre site located in the Woodland where UDR will begin the construction of 35O homes this year. 2. In addition, Co. has 320 home community under construction Northwest Houston.
1. These are both RE3 projects and expects to be able to market
these to institutional investors upon completion. 3. Phoenix:
1. During this past qtr., UDR purchased a 15 acre site in Arizona
where Co. will build the new 382-home community that will
start this year. 1. An RE3 project. 4. Dallas: 1. This qtr., UDR closed on two apartment communities that are part of its [Austin] village of approx. 99 acres in Addison, Texas. 1. Expects to more than double the density of the zoning there and hopefully develop over 5,000 apartment homes in the mixed use retail development in this infield location. 2. An RE3 project.
5. Bellevue: 1. Co. closed on a JV for recently completed 166 home high rise tower. 2. Downtown Bellevue continues to add jobs from employers like Microsoft. 1. Co. is also in a JV to develop the second phase of 276 homes next to this tower.
3. UDR has a JV to develop another high rise community in this
market. 4. All of these developments are RE3 investments.
6. Inland Empire: 1. This qtr., UDR placed a 30-acre development site under contract in Rancho Cucamonga, California, developed up to 600 homes with a projected start in the latter part of 2008, the first …