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What Came First - Crazy Loans or High Prices?

Mortgage Servicing News

| April 01, 2007 | Muolo, Paul | COPYRIGHT 2007 SourceMedia, Inc. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

Remember when the accounting shenanigans of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were plastered across the front pages of our sister publications National Mortgage News and American Banker? Remember when the editorial page of The Wall Street Journal constantly lambasted the GSEs for blood sport? No more. The big story in mortgageland is subprime.

I must say, the GSEs are not looking bad these days - nor is the rest of the "conventional" market, which likely will benefit from the current carnage being suffered in the subprime sector. In case you just woke up from a coma, the B&C industry is in a freefall, the likes that haven't been seen since 1998 when the Russian debt crisis and concerns about gain-on-sale accounting hammered the industry as several public firms went belly up.

A handful of veteran mortgages executives have told me they think the current nuclear meltdown is worse than 1998. (We shall see.)

This time around not one publicly traded B&C lender has officially failed but New Century Financial Corp. - the No. 2 ranked B&C funder - certainly is a candidate for that distinction. And shareholders in subprime stocks have seen hundreds of millions (billions, perhaps?) in value go up in smoke the past two months. Can you spell "class-action lawsuit"?

Oh, it's ugly alright. Wall Street is playing Mr. Potter to New Century's George Bailey. There's plenty of blame to go around. Bottom line: the subprime sector will survive but it will be a shadow of its former self. Over the past two years - according to the Quarterly Data Report - subprime production has accounted for 25% of all originations. In the old days it was 5% to 10%.

Yes, a new reality has set into the business. It's all for the good, though. Now, we can ask the basic question: what came first, the chicken or the egg? Or what came first, outrageous home prices or stupid loans (payment-option ARMs) that allowed consumers to bid up the price of housing by keeping their monthly payments artificially low? And who pushed these crazy mortgages on consumers in the first place - lenders or Realtors or ...

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Source: HighBeam Research, What Came First - Crazy Loans or High Prices?

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