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Radian Performs Best among MI Firms in 4th Quarter.
NEW YORK -- Of the three publicly traded holding companies whose main business is private mortgage insurance, only Radian has topped consensus earnings estimates.
MGIC came in above Friedman Billings Ramsey's own estimate but below consensus while Triad missed the consensus by a wide margin. MGIC is in a deal to acquire Radian.
FBR maintained its "outperform" rating on MGIC and Radian and "market perform" rating on Triad. Fitch Ratings affirmed the insurer financial strength rating of Triad at "AA" and has a ratings outlook of "stable" on the company.
Net income for the fourth quarter at Milwaukee-based MGIC Investment Corp. was $121.5 million, or $1.47 per share, compared with $128.1 million, or $1.44 per share, for the same period one year prior. The reason for those numbers going in opposite directions was that MGIC repurchased 6.1 million shares in 2006.
For the year, MGIC earned $564.7 million, or $6.65 per share, down from $626.9 million, or $6.78 per share, in 2005.
FBR, in a brief statement, said, "The primary difference between our estimate and actual results was better-than-forecasted joint-venture income. Credit trends and top-line growth were relatively in line with our expectations. Higher-incurred losses reflect seasonal trends, which we believe the market often forgets going into the fourth-quarter earnings season. We believe seasonal headwinds will moderate in the first quarter of 2007 and MGIC will again generate a low- to mid-teen return on equity. We maintain our 2007 EPS estimate at $7.15 and introduce our 2008 EPS estimate at $8."
Persistency continues to rebound, from 61.3% on Dec. 31, 2005 to 69.6% on the same day one year later.
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Source: HighBeam Research, Radian Performs Best among MI Firms in 4th Quarter.