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Original Source: FD (FAIR DISCLOSURE) WIRE
JIM COVELLO, TECHNOLOGY ANALYST, GOLDMAN SACHS: Thanks for being here. I'm Jim Covello from Goldman. I am very much looking forward to the next presentation. Mooly Eden from Intel's Mobile Platform Group is going to give us a presentation and then we're going to have a little Q and A. I'm not going to get in the way of that so, Mooly, please fire away.
MOOLY EDEN, VP, GM MOBILE PLATFORM GROUP, INTEL CORPORATION: Good morning, everybody. I hear there are many people that I do not know so I'll help you with my accent. If you understand what I am saying just do like this with your head. If you don't understand what I am saying, just do like this in your head. You know this will give me more so I'll feel better. I am now running the Mobile Platform Group. I actually moved to the dark side four years ago. All my life I was engineer, what they call it is a "chip head." I was running the Israeli Development Center so at there I was responsible for the design of [P55], then later on of Banias, which was translated to be Centrino, then the beginning of the core duo and then I moved over to the U.S. to introduce the Centrino and then somehow I moved for seven months and I still find myself over here. So deep inside I am engineer and the reason I am telling you is because when I say some things then I will be carried away and I'll be very proud. It is because I am very proud. So I will be very glad if you challenge me about the comment that I say about architecture etcetera but actually that's where I spend most of my life. This is actually part of the campaign of the multiply campaign, probably normal where it started but it will have time outside to show with you.
Let me read the disclaimer-- no, I'm kidding, little bit low. Anyone would have been hard to see the implication of this presentation. Any resemblance of any company or any person is merely coincidental and copy my recommendation at your own risk, no guarantee, no warranty, nada.
Okay, the growth phenomenon-- actually when I am speaking about mobile computing or about notebooks I look at the analogy that they see and what you see over here is actually the phone growth and we see that the phone since the 19th century there was very gradual growth of the phone and then suddenly something happened that took it up, which we call the Augustine phenomena, something that caused it to go exponentially much faster and the question is what was the phenomena that caused this crazy growth or this Augustine that suddenly a thing that looks very gradual with constant CAGR kind of exponentially grows? And I believe everybody knows the answer but actually in 1973 we introduced the mobiles, and the mobiles created two things. First of all, mobility, you can move from one place to another place, do not need to be hooked to your fixed phone. And the other thing that people took some time to recognize is personalization.
Several years ago when you called you called a number. Today you do not call a number, you call a person. When you dial my number it's a person and if you look at my cellular phone, it's not a phone. It's my style and my phone is different from your phone and naturally we've got mobility and personalization. And the reason I mention the words mobility and personalization, because I believe the notebook is going through a similar transition. Lots to be seen and I'll show it but one of the reasons that we see this Augustine is that even one fixed phone at home or two fixed phones at home have been replaced by five cellular phones because it's mobile. It's not at home. I take it with me and I believe we see pretty similar phenomena in notebooks. And what I mean is mobility and personalization.
If you look at the times you know there were arguments many times between the analysts what's going to be the growth but actually we see a very solid growth, very fast growth of the mobile work of the notebooks. I believe there is a consensus the in '07 we'll hit the 100 million. There's a consensus between [IGC Gardner] and our internal analysis. Personally I believe the number is going to be even bigger because we see more and more on the growth of the this in the mature economies, which is EMEA and U.S. when we've got a very high penetration. One desktop is replaced by one notebook or two notebooks and we see more than one notebook per family. It's not for the emerging. It's for the mature. We see this phenomenon. We don't know how to scope it but I believe the number is going to be even higher. But overall we see 18%, 19% CAGR when the fastest growing, which is 23 and above is the consumer space followed by SMB followed by the last business, which is the more conservative. But overall we see a very solid growth moving forward.
If we are trying to look at this, again, if I'll take it back you'll see again Augustine because you'll see the penetration is very low, 5, 10, 15% and then it starts going up around 2002 and this is the percentage of total clients. Clients for me is desktop to notebook. What is the potential of notebook as a total client? Two, three years ago people believed that by 2012, 2013 we'll reach 15%. The consensus today is by 2010 we'll reach 15%. I would not be surprised if it would be even earlier. Again, mature economies, EMEA, Europe, Middle East, Africa, EMEA, and U.S. in retail since the beginning of the year we already passed 50% and we believe that if you look at the average of everything, SMB and large business will pass 50% as well.
So overall my key takeaway from that is the following-- mobile computing is the fastest growing market segment and the reason I like it as an Intel employee, as an Intel shareholder, is for …