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Inside view - Take the slow boat to Chinese riches.

Europe Intelligence Wire

| March 01, 2007 | COPYRIGHT 2007 Financial Times Ltd. This material is published under license from the publisher through the Gale Group, Farmington Hills, Michigan.  All inquiries regarding rights should be directed to the Gale Group. (Hide copyright information)Copyright

(From Reinsurance)

As the digital read-out reaches 431kph, the MagLev train is an immediate analogy for the economic G-forces that are a fact of life in China. Rocketing along the 30km route from Shanghai Airport into the outskirts of the city in a breath-taking seven minutes, the thought strikes you that, if the MagLev were to come off the rails, it might cause quite a mess. Or is that the Chinese economy?

In all the reports of the miracle of consecutive years of 10% + GDP growth, commentary glosses over the train smash ahead for the global economy if the fast-inflating Chinese bubble were to burst.

The numbers are quite terrifying. Wherever you look, China is gobbling up market share: 10% of the world's total manufacturing output; 80% of the world's orange juice; 50% of the world's shoes and so on. One in five people on earth live in China.

The biggest city in the world, Chongqing has 30 million people, yet nobody in the West has ever heard of it. Shanghai itself houses the equivalent of one quarter of the entire UK population. Meanwhile, Shanghai is like Manhattan on steroids, with a skyline at night that takes the breath away, which by daylight has a skyscraper density that stretches for as far as the eye can see in all directions.

Double whammy

The game is vast, even by Chinese standards, as the industry itself is undeveloped relative to the economy. Hence you have both the 10% GDP annual growth engine, with an immature market sitting on top - double whammy.

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