Hot spots: Nigeria.(governors elections)(Column)

Nigeria will hold elections next April in which voters are to choose new state governors, legislators and a new president in the third such exercise since the country made its transition to civilian rule in 1999, after 16 years of military rule. The campaign has gotten under way, but while one should be able to look forward to its unfolding as an encouraging confirmation that decades of armed coups and dictatorships have clearly come to an end, there is increasing nervousness about the state of democracy and its ability to survive in the witches' brew of systemic failure, violence and graft that characterize politics in Nigeria.

In one ominous development, the insurgency that has been simmering in the oil-rich Delta region, pushed primarily by the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND)--which demands that more of the country's oil revenues go to local people--has been getting progressively worse, as its leaders evidently believe that their cause can be more effectively promoted during an election campaign. Insurance premiums for foreign oil workers have been escalating sharply and companies' operating costs have increased with the growing threat.

The contest for the Presidency was thrown wide open when the incumbent Pres. Olusegun Obasanjo failed to get the constitution altered so that he could run for a third term. The bid was rejected in a bitter clash that pitted Mr. Obasanjo against his Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, despite payments of $400,000 bribes to some Senators and death threats to others.

Obasanjo has yet to say whom he favors to succeed him, but his supporters have launched a vendetta against VP Abubakar, many of whose backers have been arbitrarily arrested and whose campaign headquarters have been broken into. Meanwhile, dozens of other candidates have thrown their hats into the ring, making the ruling People's Democratic Party's choice a difficult one. The government body that is supposed to organize the election is in disarray--thoroughly under-funded and way behind schedule in registering voters.

Conditions are so bad that some believe Obasanjo is hoping the elections will be sufficiently chaotic, allowing him to declare a state of emergency and thus extend his rule. While this is a possibility that cannot be totally ruled out, we see a greater risk in the elections at the state and local levels, where the most bruising contests will be held and where the central government's Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) has yet to make serious inroads into the prevailing culture of corruption.

The core of the problem is that governors get a check each month that represents their state's share of Nigeria's oil revenues. They then have almost no one to answer to for how they spend this money. They run their states like fiefdoms and have no accountability to voters. Instead of using the funds to meet the basic needs of the populace, many steal them for their own purposes, including the building of patronage systems designed only to keep them in power.

As a result, public office tends to be so lucrative that contenders will do virtually anything to attain it. This turns ...