Population change and external commuting in Canada's rural and small town municipalities: 1996-2001.

Publication: Canadian Journal of Regional Science

Publication Date: 22-SEP-05

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Abstracts

C.J.A. MITCHELL: "Population Change and External Commuting in Canada's Rural and Small Town Municipalities: 1996-2001." This paper examines the relationship between population change and external commuting within eight size classes that comprise Canada's rural and small town (RST) municipalities. It finds that population change between 1996 and 2001 has varied much within these classes, with very small (less than 499 residents) and very large (more than 7500) census subdivisions gaining residents at the expense of those that are mid-sized. It also reveals considerable variation in levels of external commuting taking place within these size categories. Larger population size classes demonstrate a much higher percentage of external commuting than do those supported by fewer residents. A comparison of population change and commuting to larger urban areas reveals a weak, but statistically significant, correlation in ali but three of Canada's southern provinces, and in all but the very large and very small population size classes. Other types of migration (in-and out) are assumed to be responsible for this insignificance, although verification of this awaits further study.

Resumes

C.J.A. MITCHELL: ["Population Change and External Commuting in Canada's Rural and Small Town Municipalities: 1996-2001."] > Au cours des 25 dernieres annees, un nombre croissant de geographes ont explore la dynamique du mouvement de la population dans les municipalites les plus petites du Canada. Le present travail contribue a la documentation de ce phenomene en examinant la relation entre le mouvement de la population et la migration de l'exterieur [c.-a-d. vers une grande region metropolitaine de recensement (RMR) ou agglomeration de recensement (AR)] dans huit tranches de tailles qui englobent les municipalites des regions rurales et des petites villes du Canada. Quatre objectifs sont traites. Le premier consiste a decrire le mouvement de la population dans les municipalites des regions rurales et des petites villes du Canada de 1971 a 2001. Le deuxieme objectif consiste a grouper les plus petites municipalites du Canada dans l'une de quatre categories comparatives de mouvement de la population (hausse elevee, hausse moderee, perte moderee, perte elevee). Le troisieme objectif consiste a reperer les niveaux de migration de l'exterieur dans chacune de ces categories. L'objectif final consiste a evaluer la correlation entre la migration de l'exterieur et le mouvement de la population pour la periode de 1996 a 2001.

Une analyse des donnees de Statistique Canada confirme qu'une perte de population constituait la norme pour de nombreuses subdivisions de recensement (SDR) se trouvant en dehors des grands centres urbains, de 1971 a 2001. Toutefois, en depit de cette tendance generale, une analyse plus approfondie de la periode de 1996 a 2001 revele qu'un grand nombre des plus petites et des plus grandes municipalites des regions rurales et des petites villes se sont agrandies, aux depens de celles de taille moyenne. De plus, dans quatre territoires (Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba et Nunavut), de nombreuses municipalites (souvent autochtones) ont affiche des niveaux impressionnants de croissance durant cette periode quinquennale.

Les variations spatiales dans le mouvement de population comparatif sont egalement indiquees pour la periode de 1996 a 2001. L'etude permet de constater que tres peu de municipalites rurales dans l'Est du Canada ont connu le meme niveau de croissance de leur population que d'autres endroits de taille similaire au pays. En fait, un territoire (Terre-Neuve et Labrador), compte non seulement peu de municipalites a "hausse elevee", mais aussi le plus grand taux de municipalites a "perte elevee". Par contre, le Nunavut et l'Alberta se distinguent par leur taux relativement eleve de regions rurales et de petites villes connaissant une croissance rapide.

Les niveaux de migration de l'exterieur varient egalement de facon considerable au pays. Les resultats demontrent que le taux le plus eleve de municipalites sous "forte" emprise metropolitaine (c.-a-d. dont plus de 30% des habitants se deplacent pour travailler dans une RMR ou une AR) se trouve en Ontario, a l'Ile-du-Prince-edouard et au Quebec, et qu'un nombre relativement peu eleve de ces municipalites se trouve en Saskatchewan et a Terre-Neuve et au Labrador. Des analyses demontrent egalement qu'il existe un lien direct entre la taille de la municipalite et le degre d'emprise metropolitaine ; ainsi, plus la tranche de taille est elevee, moins le taux de SDR "sans emprise" est eleve (c.-a-d. moins de 40 habitants faisant la navette pour travailler dans une RMR ou une AR).

Le calcul du coefficient de correlation de rang demontre un lien faible mais statistiquement significatif entre le mouvement de la population et la migration de l'exterieur, a l'echelle nationale. It s'agit d'un resultat direct de la situation dans quatre des provinces du sud du Canada. En Ontario, au Quebec et en Alberta, on constate un lien positif, alors qu'a Terre-Neuve et au Labrador, le lien est significatif, mais negatif. Les correlations etablies aux fins des tranches de tailles demontrent egalement un lien significatif, mais uniquement dans les municipalites de taille moyenne. On en conclut que d'autres types de migration sont a l'origine du mouvement de la population dans bon nombre des petites municipalites du Canada.

Introduction

Over the past twenty-five years, an increasing number of geographers has explored the dynamics of population change occurring in Canada's smallest municipalities. Through myriad studies, it has become clear that the evolutionary path taken by these localities is anything but consistent. While some have prospered during the latter half of the 20th century, many have seen a continual erosion of their economic and demographic base. Although it can be argued that change is increasingly being promoted and indeed managed from within (NRE2 2006), it is also undeniable that external forces have much to do with the fate of Canada's smallest settlement areas. As described below, it is one such force that is the primary concern of this paper.

In the pages that follow, an exploration is made of the relationship between population change and external commuting within Canada's smallest municipalities. For the purpose of this study, the term "external commuting" is borrowed from Mitchelson and Fisher (1987) to describe the daily, or less frequent, trip taken by residents of a small municipality to an employment destination found within a Census Agglomeration (CA) or Census Metropolitan Area (CMA). Small municipalities, the residence of commuters, are equated with rural and small town (RST) census subdivisions (CSDs), as identified by Statistics Canada. These are all municipalities located beyond the boundaries of large urban areas (CAs and CMAs) which, according to the latest census, provided a residence for 20.5 % of Canada's population (Table 1; Statistics Canada 2001).

The fundamental goal of this paper is to determine if a relationship exists between population change and external commuting in Canada's small municipalities and to ascertain if spatial variations exist in the strength and/or direction of this relationship. Given the heterogeneity of Canada's rural and small town settlements, it is anticipated that the relationship will not be spatially consistent. In all likelihood, many municipalities located in highly urbanized regions will owe their growth to their ability to attract a commuting population. In other jurisdictions, alternative forces may be at work.

The paper is organized around four specific sub-objectives. First is to describe population change occurring in Canada's RST municipalities (by nation, province and size class) between 1996 and 2001, with limited historical data provided for the 1971-1996 period. Second is to calculate comparative levels of population change within these municipalities during the last census period, while the third is to identify levels of external commuting. The final objective is to explore the relationship between comparative population change, as established under objective two, and external commuting, as outlined under objective three. The methodology used to meet these objectives is presented in a subsequent section. What now follows is a brief justification for undertaking this exploration of population change within Canada's smallest settlement areas.

Justification

A study such as this is warranted for two reasons. First, little attention has been devoted amongst academics to analyzing population change within rural and small town municipalities, as defined by Statistics Canada. The majority of research dealing with population dynamics has focused on either change in the percentage of the population defined as rural (those living in municipalities with fewer than 1000 people and a population density of less than 400/sq. km) or on growth and decline taking place within towns and villages of various sizes. Studies of the first type have described rural population change at a national (Robinson 1981; Joseph et al. 1988; Keddie and Joseph 1991; Beaujot and Kerr 2004; Bone 2005), provincial (Carleton University History Collaborative 1993) and local (Dahms and Hallman 1991; Thomson and Mitchell 1998) scale. With few exceptions (e.g. Hodge and Qadeer 1983), those of the second type tend to deal with individual regions. Two localities that have received ongoing attention from academics are the western Prairies (e.g. Davies 1990; Stabler et al 1992; Rounds and Shamanski 1993; Stabler and Olfert 1996; Stabler and Olfert 2002) and the provinces of Atlantic Canada (e.g. Dykeman and Corbett 1986; Bruce and Whitla 1993; Bruce et al 1999). Taken together, this research reveals that although the percentage of population residing in rural Canada has declined, spatial and temporal disparities are apparent. Furthermore, it has been found that population change is not consistent within regional size classes, but also tends to vary through both time and space. (1)

Although acknowledged by academics (e.g. Bryant and Joseph 2001), research on rural and small town municipalities, as defined above, is largely limited to working papers and bulletins published by Statistics Canada (e.g. Mendelson and Bollman 1998). This research is invaluable in painting a broad picture of change occurring within RST areas at a national and provincial scale. Given this emphasis, however, subtle variations in population change occurring within municipalities of different sizes may well be masked. Objectives one and two seek to uncover these disparities by describing population change occurring in eight size classes that together comprise Canada's rural and small town population.

Justification for this paper also stems from the absence of a national study on the relationship between population change occurring in RST municipalities and external commuting. The topic of commuting has been dealt with fairly extensively. We do know, for example, that this journey-to-work movement is undertaken by a specific group of migrants, known as "ex-urbanites" (Mitchell 2004). First recognized by Spectorsky (1955), ex-urbanites have relocated from a larger municipality in search of a rural living environment but choose to retain their ties to the urban core through a daily (or less frequent) commute. The presence of exurbanites has been well-documented in Canada. They were first observed living in localities adjacent to Metropolitan Toronto (Pearson 1961; Bourne and Simmons 1973; Hodge 1973; Punter 1974) and later...

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