Credit Manager's Index: for April 2006 ... Now seasonally adjusted!(CMI)(Statistical data)

The Combined Credit Manager's Index (CMI) fell a modest 0.6 percent for the month of April on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline was comprised of a 1.8 percent fall in the service sector index and an offsetting rise of 0.5 percent in the manufacturing sector index. "While there was no particular concentration of changes in the components, the surprising resilience of the economy continues to shine through," said Dan North, Chief Economist with credit insurer Euler Hermes ACI. For the first time since July 2004, all of the components in all of the indexes are above the 50 percent mark indicating economic expansion. "As far as credit managers are concerned," said North, "the economy is firing on all cylinders."

North continued, "Despite rising interest rates and high energy costs, the housing market is not cooling as quickly as expected, and consumer confidence remains strong. It is worth noting, however, that Fed Chairman Bernanke has openly cited rising energy prices as a threat to the economy, prompting the financial markets to forecast a greater than 50 percent chance of more tightening at the next Fed meeting on May 10th. That would be 16 increases over the past two years; from 1 percent to 5 percent, a very significant tightening of monetary policy."

The manufacturing sector index rose 0.5 percent in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The increase was a result of an improvement in the unfavorable factors of 1.3 ...