DEVELOPMENT: South Africa (MRB Dec 2001): Government races against time and events to secure stability and growth.

(MRB Dec 2001) Along with the collapsing Rand and signs of a rise in the basic cost of living came new SA figures revealing increasing mass poverty in tandem with greater and highly visible Black access to the wealthiest stratum of society. This shift may be another factor in the rising militancy of the labour movement in SA, say analysts.

More blacks among rich

South Africans at the bottom of the income pile are getting poorer and they are overwhelmingly black. But at the top end, the colour of money is changing, according to the South Africa Survey, a pre-eminent barometer of development trends, released this month.

"Among the wealthiest 20% of South African society, a clear process of deracialisation, in terms of income, is under way. But the base of pyramid has stayed the same. Poverty remains to be endured overwhelmingly by African households," says Francis Wilson, a co-author.

For Wilson, this poses a key challenge to policy-makers in government and that is to recognise the interconnectedness between "employment, education and the economy". As the economy has shifted from old sectors like mining and manufacturing into trade and services, workers have not been able to keep up, leading to downward employment trends - with black unemployment again highest. This is because the skills required to power the economic growth areas are concentrated in the wealthiest population groups.

Viewed through such a prism, the good news in the Survey is that education levels are beginning to pick up, but from a very low base. Also important, said SA Institute of Race Relations chief executive John Kane-Berman, is the fact that the country appears to be reversing the downward trend in university enrolment - crucial if the country is to reap the benefits of economic restructuring.

But, again, too few black students are entering the professions where employment is most likely. In computer studies, a growth sector, white student enrolment still outstrips the African rate by three to one. The picture is similar for engineering, maths, agriculture and business enrolment. Only in public administration and social sciences is the ratio inverted - but these are not growth sectors as government is cutting down on employment and many social science graduates are unemployed.