Zimbabwe (MRB Oct 01 2001): Tactics and good fortune may get Mugabe off the hook.

President Robert Mugabe's tactics and good fortune appear for now to be standing him in good stead. He has slid out of the constraints of the Abuja agreement on land resettlement by packing a court and reversing a crucial decision judging his actions illegal - and the terror attacks on the US have switched world attention and are now conferring fresh importance on the stability of regimes. Now he faces only his domestic economic crisis and his political opposition.

The Abuja agreement on September 6 stressed that aid from Britain and other international donors should be part of a poverty-reduction programme and not benefit Mugabe's Zanu-PF elite; Britain reversed itself on whether the take-overs may be compulsory or not. The Supreme Court decision, secured after a number of judges were hounded out of office, has ensured that the land will continue to be taken over forcibly - or more likely with the commercial farmers' union seeing the writing on the wall and agreeing to hand-overs, while holding out for a change of regime in the upcoming presidential election. The interim ruling reversed an order issued in November, which had found Mugabe's land reforms unconstitutional and told police to evict occupiers from white farms; that court decision was ignored.

The second strand of Mugabe's strategy has been to prevent an opposition win in the election. Privately government ministers agree that in a free and fair election he will lose to Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai - but they are determined that this will not come about. A favourable outcome is already being sought by a heightened campaign of harassment.

The MDC has been seeking to cultivate a broad front of SADC (Southern African Development Community) and world leaders to hold Mugabe's militias back. Now, after the re-alignment of Africa policy by the US and its allies, this front is in danger of falling away. The Commonwealth summit in Brisbane, Australia, which had been scheduled to take place on October 6-9 with Zimbabwe at the top of its agenda, was cancelled after the US attacks.

And US President George W Bush ended an earlier confrontation on the issue of human rights and the rule of law - set out in August by the US Senate in the Zimbabwe Democracy and Recovery Act - when he responded warmly to Zimbabwe's pledge this month to co-operate with the US in fighting terrorism. The two governments agreed that "although people must enjoy their lives, steps had to be taken to close some loopholes being exploited by terrorists," a government source told the state-run Herald newspaper.

According to the report Bush was "grateful to Mr Mugabe for the condolence message and recalled past assistance and co-operation between the US and Zimbabwe".

The Zimbabwe Democracy and Recovery Act would have opened the way for visa restrictions and other sanctions on Zimbabwe. But the climate in Washington has now changed, and there will be growing concern in opposition circles in Zimbabwe that regimes in Africa will be judged henceforth on the basis, first and foremost, of their co-operation in the 'war against terrorism'.