Virtual tests, real results. (editor's note).(use of CAE tools)

There's not much to cheer about on the high-tech financial front these days. Take the mechanical CAD/CAM/CAE industry. Prior to the terrorist attacks on September 11, research firm Datatech had already shaved 2001 growth forecasts for this market from 11.4 percent to 7.9 percent. Now it has lowered expectations further, estimating that revenues will increase only 4 percent this year to reach a total of $6.25 billion. And that may be optimistic.

But even in this dim picture, there is a ray of light. The CAE segment of the industry, which has been the fastest growing of this entire market for several years, continues to pick up speed. The latest forecast unveiled by Daratech at its 2001 Intelligent Digital Prototyping Strategies conference, held in Detroit last month, estimates that CAE tools, which it defines as virtual prototyping and simulation software, will grow 12.1 percent this year to total $1.2 billion in revenues.

The acceptance of these programs, which are being used to test the performance of virtual products, has been growing rapidly. According to Daratech CEO Charles Foundyller, whereas 10 to 20 years ago users relied almost exclusively on hardware prototypes and physical tests--for example, to gauge the durability and crashworthiness of vehicles--many now simulate the majority of these tests using virtual prototypes and conduct physical tests at the end of the development cycle, largely to verify the virtual test results.

General Motors is a prime example of this migration from physical to virtual testing. "In 1991, we crashed about 80 vehicles when doing front and rear barrier tests for the Caprice," says Steve Rhode, GM's technical director of vehicle synthesis, analysis, and simulation, and keynote speaker at the Daratech conference. "Ten years later, for the 2001 Impala, we were ...