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Gone Is the Long Bond.(30-year Treasury bond has been retired; may affect mortgage market)(Brief Article)
The announcement that the federal government will discontinue the 30-year Treasury Bond came as something of a surprise. It was an ironic moment, in some ways. The 30-year bond is no longer necessary because low interest rates and a string of government surpluses, the fruits of a strong economy and a "peace dividend" enjoyed during much of the 1990s, made it unnecessary. The announcement drove interest rates even lower, as mutual funds and others who might have bought 30-year Treasuries moved into 10-year Treasuries and related instruments. That pushed mortgage rates down as well.
But the war on terrorism has, in essence, repealed the peace dividend, pushing government spending upward. And the economy had entered a recession even before the devastating Sept. 11 terrorist strikes. Could that point toward dreaded "stagflation" down the road? With high interest rates coupled with a weak economy?
Fortunately, there's no sign of stagflation on the horizon right now. But unfortunately, the economy seems to be weaker than had been anticipated. Many economists hope for a recovery early next year, but there is precious little evidence of an economic rebound at the moment, despite all the optimism.
That probably means that interest rates will remain low, at least for the immediate future. It also means that the refinancing ...
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