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Servicers Face Likely Record Runoff Rate.(mortgage refinancing to set record in 2001)(Brief Article)(Statistical Data Included)
With 30-year mortgage rates slipping to a three-decade low, there is no longer any doubt that 2001 will be a record year for refinancing activity and mortgage lending volume.
Even before the average commitment rate on 30-year loans hit 6.45% in the week ending Nov. 9, according to Freddie Mac, housing economists were predicting that total lending volume, fueled by heavy refinancing would surge to more than $1.6 trillion this year. Now, the consensus seems to be that $1.8 trillion might be closer to the actual number.
Moreover, Freddie Mac chief economist Robert Van Order said rates are likely to remain in the 6.5% range "at least through the year." He doesn't expect rates to move down much further, but he acknowledges that could happen.
"Could it go down to 6.25%? Yes," he said.
As for next year? Mr. Van Order says that his guess right now is that rates will remain below 7% in 2002. That could generate additional portfolio runoff and turnover next year.
Refinancing will likely account for about 55% of home loans made for the entire year, Mr. Van Order said. According to the weekly loan application survey of the ...
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