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Will Latinos Always Be Democrats? James Gimpel and Karen Kauffmann, Impossible Dream or Distant Reality? Republican Efforts to Attract Latino Voters. Center for Immigration Studies, 1522 K Street N.W. #820, Washington, D.C. 20005
Republican political strategists are trying to figure out policies that will nudge Latino voters toward the GOP. But University of Maryland political scientists Gimpel and Kauffmann suggest that it's far more likely that Hispanics will become increasingly Democratic. "Prospects of a widespread Latino conversion to the Republicans," they write, "are more fantasy than reality."
It's true that, by attracting 35 percent of the Latino vote, George W. Bush did better than any Republican presidential candidate during the past 16 years. But Bush failed to do as well as Ronald Reagan, who attracted 37 percent of Hispanic votes in both the 1980 and 1984 contests. Moreover, with the exception of Texas and Florida, large states with substantial Hispanic populations are becoming Democratic strongholds. According to Voter News Service exit polls conducted last November, the margin by which Hispanic voters prefer Democrats over Republicans is 60-26 in California, 4829 in Illinois, and ...