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AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY SET FOR BOOM/BUST CYCLE IN NEXT DECADE.
SYDNEY, Dec 3 Asia Pulse - The Australian economy is forecast in a new report to experience an investment-led boom-bust cycle over the next decade.
GDP growth is expected to peak in 2004/05 before a downturn in 2007/08. The BIS Shrapnel Long Term Forecasts 2001/2016 noted that the longer term outlook for the economy is unlikely to be impacted by the terrorist attacks in September.
BIS said that it had already factored in a sharp slowdown in the US and that the Australian economy would be more than capable of weathering the current downturn before the boom-bust cycle begins.
"The Australian economy will be affected by these events," BIS Shrapnel chief economist Frank Gelber said.
"But overseas growth will bounce back in some 18 months and allow the Australian economy to switch into gear."
He said that the Australian economic recovery would begin with low interest rates and he added that domestic interest rates can remain around the current 4.5 per cent for the next three years.
Economic growth over the two years following would come from an upswing in property markets and a subsequent boom in construction leading to GDP peaking at five per cent over the 2004/05 period.
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Source: HighBeam Research, AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY SET FOR BOOM/BUST CYCLE IN NEXT DECADE.