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As another college basketball season gets under way, the theme seems to be "The run to the Final Four is wide open." Everybody loves Cinderella teams in March, and this season could produce more candidates than ever.
Why are things so wide open? The answer is simple: a vast number of players are entering the NBA draft early, and the young players teams will rely on to fill their shoes are unknown quantities.
Had Mike Dunleavy or Caron Butler stayed in school, for instance, Duke and Connecticut would be easy Final Four picks. Both were drafted very high, so you can't fault their decisions.
The top teams this season obviously will depend on returning players but, in part because of early exits, they also will rely on exciting newcomers.
These great new players keep college basketball alive and healthy. Every summer, I'm amazed to see so many outstanding prospects. Take a look at North Carolina. Matt Doherty will get his team back on track because of a great recruiting class. Just from seeing the three freshmen play in their first couple of games, the Tar Heals are so improved from last season it's a joke. Raymond Felton is the real deal. Any time you bring in the top point guard from high school, things can turn around quickly. Mark Price, Kenny Anderson, Travis Best and Stephon Marbury did that for me.
The Tar Heels might even start thinking about the Final Four again in the near future--if only they could be assured that this group would stick around for a few years. That's why it's crucial for North Carolina to bring in one or two more impact players as quickly as possible.
Coaches with foresight really benefit. No longer can you wait on a player to decide his future. Coaches who sign an elite class must recruit right behind it. I cringe when I hear my former peers telling me, "I thought for sure he would stay another year." It's already too late because many of the top players already have signed.