Democrats rising?('The Emerging Democratic Majority')(Book Review)

The Emerging Democratic Majority By John B. Judis and Ruy Teixeira Scribner, 213 pages, $24

In 1969, political analyst Kevin Phillips announced that a new coalition of voters was emerging that would end "New Deal Democratic hegemony" and create a Republican/conservative lock on the electoral college for years to come.

Sure enough, repulsed by the flower children rioting in the streets and their Democratic allies, southern Protestants, working-class urban Catholics, and rural westerners flocked to the Republican party. These voters turned to Richard Nixon in 1972 when he ran against "acid, amnesty, and abortion" In 1980 they gave Ronald Reagan a decisive mandate to downsize government, cut taxes, and defeat communism.

In a new book, The Emerging Democratic Majority, liberal analysts John Judis and Ruy Teixeira now argue that the conservative national majority is disintegrating, and that a new coalition committed to the Democratic party is rising.

The offspring of many World War II-era cultural conservatives have left ethnic city neighborhoods and rural areas for suburbia. Having achieved upper-middle class status, some are embarrassed by the traditional moral beliefs of their forefathers. According to Judis and Teixeira, this emerging class of metropolitan professionals is joining blacks, Hispanics, and working women in an embrace of "progressive" politics that will guarantee the Democratic party a national electoral majority.

In my home state of New York, the traditionally Republican suburban counties surrounding New York City have been flooded over the last generation with socially liberal professionals who are changing the political demographics. In 1998, Chuck Schumer beat three-term incumbent U.S. Senator Al D'Amato by making dramatic inroads in suburban areas. Schumer actually received 47 percent of the vote in D'Amato's home county on Long Island. Two years later, Hillary Clinton whipped Rick Lazio by carrying even affluent Westchester County and the upstate Republican stronghold of Onondaga County.

Democrats show rising strength in metropolitan regions where "the production of ideas and services has either re-defined or replaced assembly-line manufacturing," state the authors. Artisans, musicians, craftsmen, and technology experts often support liberal social and environmental causes, and are becoming more numerous as America becomes richer.