And One Expert Fears a Burst.(Bill Staton, real estate market)(Brief Article)(Statistical Data Included)

The real estate market is nearing a peak and a downturn is near with the bubble bursting in the next few years if not sooner, according to one money manager.

Bill Staton, who calls himself "America's Money Coach," pointed to the "Long Cycle" (named after a Princeton economist), which found real estate moves in roughly 19-to-20 year cycles.

His own analysis of the cycle finds the real estate market, building upward since 1993, is now approaching the halfway mark.

When the downturn will happen is not known, but "what we do know is that we're getting close to some sort of peak," he said.

Mr. Staton said there is a "mania" about real estate right now even though there are "red flags about housing flying all of the place."

Key among his observations is that housing prices are increasing faster than Americans' income. Last year, after inflation, housing prices rose 5.7%. In April the year-over-year price for a home had increased by almost 9%, "the largest increase in a more than a decade, and an unsustainable pace."

Housing payments are taking the highest level of borrower's disposable income while at the same time credit standards from lenders are dropping.