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Commercial: Roundup: Property Markets Expected to Bounce Back in '03.(Brief Article)(Industry Overview)(Statistical Data Included)
The U.S. commercial real estate market will rebound in 2003 after bottoming out later this year, according to Moody's Investors Service.
The credit rating agency's property cycle index - which tracks the U.S. commercial real estate cycle over 20 years and across more than 50 markets - also indicates that the current bottom will not be as severe as the low the industry experienced in 1986.
Sally Gordon, a Moody's vice president, noted, "The shallower decline in this cycle, compared to the 1980s and early 1990s, means delinquencies in this cycle should not reach those levels, with the real estate cycle today more affected by anemic demand than in the past when oversupply was the problem." Moody's expects the multifamily and retail sectors to show the strongest gains in 2003.
Currently, the multifamily sector has been negatively impacted by the recession and by the rise in homeownership, which has hit an all-time high of 68%, according to Moody's.
In fact, the multifamily sector has hit a low of 60 on Moody's scoring system, dropping from a high of 81 for last year.
The previous low of 67 for the sector was reached in 1985, Moody's reports.
The office and industrial sectors are expected to strengthen slightly in 2003, but remain "on the cusp of an imbalance between supply and demand."
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Source: HighBeam Research, Commercial: Roundup: Property Markets Expected to Bounce Back in...